Mitch Keller
RHP
PIT
13
HRs Allowed
11.5%
HR Rate (Pool)
7.5%
Overall HR/FB
3.34
FIP
4.16
xFIP
-0.82
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
7.5%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
12th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
76.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.34
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
28th pctile
4.16
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.82
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
11th pctile
11.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
113
Pool Matchups
13
HRs Allowed (Pool)
0
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
11.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 13.3% | 1.0 | 96.5mph | 104.5mph | 25.0° | 398ft | Flat +1.8pp |
| Last 15 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 8.3% | 0.67 | 97.4mph | 104.5mph | 25.0° | 398ft | Down -3.2pp |
| Last 30 | 51 | 6 | 8 | 15.7% | 1.33 | 98.0mph | 104.6mph | 27.2° | 405ft | Up +4.2pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
97.0
Avg Max EV
110.8
Max EV Allowed
76
Hard-Hit Proxy · 76.0%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
104.1
Avg HR EV
27.7°
Avg HR Launch
403
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Shohei Ohtani | 108.7mph | 107.7mph | 21° | 391ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-11 | Andy Pages | 102.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Mike Yastrzemski | 106.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Matt Olson | 105.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Mauricio Dubón | 101.2mph | 101.2mph | 29° | 405ft | Yes |
| 2026-05-30 | Luke Keaschall | 106.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Kody Clemens | 105.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Tristan Gray | 104.2mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Shohei Ohtani | #38 | 53 | PNC Park | 107.7mph | 21.0° | 391ft |
| 2026-06-05 | Mauricio Dubón | #161 | 37 | Truist Park | 101.2mph | 29.0° | 405ft |
| 2026-05-19 | Alec Burleson | #119 | 42 | Busch Stadium | 102.5mph | 28.0° | 404.0ft |
| 2026-05-19 | Nolan Gorman | #129 | 40 | Busch Stadium | 108.2mph | 29.0° | 437.0ft |
| 2026-05-19 | JJ Wetherholt | #182 | 33 | Busch Stadium | 105.0mph | 23.0° | 406.0ft |
| 2026-05-19 | Iván Herrera | #218 | 25 | Busch Stadium | 102.6mph | 24.0° | 410.0ft |
| 2026-05-13 | Mickey Moniak | #35 | 45 | PNC Park | 103.4mph | 31.0° | 372.0ft |
| 2026-05-13 | TJ Rumfield | #206 | 21 | PNC Park | 105.9mph | 33.0° | 415.0ft |
| 2026-05-07 | Corbin Carroll | #122 | 22 | Chase Field | 104.0mph | 27.0° | 406.0ft |
| 2026-04-19 | Junior Caminero | #197 | 30 | PNC Park | 103.0mph | 29.0° | 398.0ft |
| 2026-04-14 | CJ Abrams | #137 | 27 | PNC Park | 102.7mph | 30.0° | 389.0ft |
| 2026-04-08 | Jake Cronenworth | #221 | 25 | PNC Park | 103.2mph | 28.0° | 399.0ft |
| 2026-03-28 | Luis Robert Jr. | #128 | 34 | Citi Field | · | · | · |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 431 | 32.9% | -1.2 | 83.7 | 29.0° | 1 |
| Sinker | 225 | 17.2% | +0.7 | 84.9 | 10.4° | 0 |
| Sweeper | 222 | 16.9% | +1.2 | 78.1 | 15.0° | 3 |
| Changeup | 126 | 9.6% | +1.9 | 86.4 | 2.8° | 1 |
| Slider | 112 | 8.5% | -1.6 | 82.0 | 0.7° | 0 |
| Curveball | 104 | 7.9% | +2.3 | 83.2 | 2.9° | 1 |
| Cutter | 90 | 6.9% | +0.4 | 78.4 | 9.8° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
76.0%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Alex Freeland | #109 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Kyle Tucker | #108 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Mookie Betts | #103 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Freddie Freeman | #69 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Andy Pages | #64 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Dalton Rushing | #53 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Max Muncy | #44 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-11 | Shohei Ohtani | #38 | 53 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-05 | Sandy León | #240 | 8 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Dominic Smith | #184 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Mike Yastrzemski | #173 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Mauricio Dubón | #161 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-05 | Austin Riley | #151 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Ozzie Albies | #139 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Matt Olson | #16 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Orlando Arcia | #269 | 12 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Luke Keaschall | #261 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Victor Caratini | #246 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Tristan Gray | #235 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Josh Bell | #232 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Trevor Larnach | #228 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Austin Martin | #224 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Kody Clemens | #156 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Byron Buxton | #28 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Yohendrick Piñango | #242 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | #233 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Brandon Valenzuela | #227 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Ernie Clement | #214 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Andrés Giménez | #206 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Jesús Sánchez | #181 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | George Springer | #162 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Daulton Varsho | #153 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Kazuma Okamoto | #137 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | César Prieto | #261 | 3 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Victor Scott II | #258 | 9 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Iván Herrera | #218 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Pedro Pagés | #211 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | JJ Wetherholt | #182 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nathan Church | #172 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Nolan Gorman | #129 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Alec Burleson | #119 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Jordan Walker | #30 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Brenton Doyle | #260 | 5 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Kyle Karros | #253 | 10 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Ezequiel Tovar | #252 | 10 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Willi Castro | #243 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Troy Johnston | #225 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | TJ Rumfield | #206 | 21 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-13 | Edouard Julien | #195 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Hunter Goodman | #46 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Mickey Moniak | #35 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-07 | Jose Fernandez | #172 | 9 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Jorge Barrosa | #170 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Alek Thomas | #169 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Nolan Arenado | #167 | 12 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Geraldo Perdomo | #165 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Ketel Marte | #154 | 15 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Adrian Del Castillo | #147 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Ildemaro Vargas | #138 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-07 | Corbin Carroll | #122 | 22 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-01 | Eugenio Suárez | #252 | 2 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-01 | Matt McLain | #248 | 9 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-01 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | #247 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-01 | TJ Friedl | #240 | 12 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-01 | Tyler Stephenson | #232 | 14 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-01 | Spencer Steer | #201 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-01 | Sal Stewart | #158 | 25 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-01 | Elly De La Cruz | #136 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-01 | Nathaniel Lowe | #125 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-25 | David Hamilton | #268 | 10 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Brandon Lockridge | #263 | 14 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Sal Frelick | #258 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Luis Rengifo | #212 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | William Contreras | #176 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Garrett Mitchell | #150 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Jake Bauers | #121 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Brice Turang | #104 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Gary Sánchez | #42 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Taylor Walls | #267 | 3 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Chandler Simpson | #265 | 4 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Jonny DeLuca | #236 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Cedric Mullins | #232 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Yandy Díaz | #231 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Richie Palacios | #215 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Junior Caminero | #197 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-19 | Jonathan Aranda | #182 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Hunter Feduccia | #162 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Keibert Ruiz | #161 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Jorbit Vivas | #158 | 10 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Brady House | #156 | 19 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Luis García Jr. | #151 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | Daylen Lile | #149 | 25 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-14 | CJ Abrams | #137 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-14 | Joey Wiemer | #120 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-14 | James Wood | #107 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Luis Arraez | #239 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Jose Iglesias | #226 | 13 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Xander Bogaerts | #224 | 25 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Jake Cronenworth | #221 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-08 | Elias Diaz | #197 | 26 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Gavin Sheets | #174 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Manny Machado | #158 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | #154 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Jackson Merrill | #125 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Marcus Semien | #176 | 31 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Bo Bichette | #131 | 36 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Luis Robert Jr. | #128 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-03-28 | Carson Benge | #111 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Jorge Polanco | #102 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Francisco Lindor | #99 | 40 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Francisco Alvarez | #71 | 41 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Brett Baty | #43 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Juan Soto | #30 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |